Stocks Down, Jobs Down, Housing Down, Gov. Bailout UP?

Can the economic news get any worst? In my short lifetime and the 28 years of Berman Larson Kane (www.jobsbl.com) the news is the worst I can remember.  Or is the reason for all the massive doubt amplified by our new multi media international distribution channels?

 

For example, if I was to block out all the media (I know I’m fantasizing) and drill down to the tiny microcosm of BLK we are experiencing sideways activity.  Our temporary staffing division is experiencing double digit growth (go figure) our direct hire division is taking it on the chin with the exceptions of our technical sales division and clinical research division which are in a growth pattern).  So although we are not growing we are not in need of a government bailout at the moment.  (Although I think we are small enough to fail, but I would strongly consider a government loan if one was offered). So the bottom line is the World, U.S. & New Jersey economy continues to tank and we at BLK are surviving.  I think I might disconnect my RSS feeds, NYTimes Alerts, televisions, radio and keep only the sports section of my newspaper.  Then maybe, just maybe I will be able to get at least one nights good sleep.

Looking for a job? Looking for a safe investment? Looking for some positive news?

Looking for a job? Looking for a safe investment? Looking for some positive news?

 

The Answer is “Saturday Night Live”. Some how their satires are becoming real.  Maybe Tina Fey is really the leader of our country?  Well enough silliness; let me share the job market realities from the BLK (www.bermanlarsonkane.com) world before I break into tears.

 

In our tiny universe we are experiencing a steady flow of contract and temporary assignments.  These orders are remarkably ahead of last years’ assignments by at least 10%.  The only explanation I can offer is companies need to fill certain skill shortages and temps/contractors/consultants are the solution to get the task completed without making a long-term commitment.  Budgets are tightening for new headcount, but temporary consultants help meet workflow without increasing headcount.

 

On a positive note our good clients continue to use us here at BLK for the few openings that they have and our research & recruiting staff are very proficient at finding the best sample that the market has to offer.  I thank our regular clients and we continue to find cost effective solutions to their personnel needs.

 

On the downside we are finding that although the number of job requirements placed with our firm remain constant,  that interview cycles are being extended, as the client needs to really justify every hire with a strong bottom line business need.  This has created slow down in new hires and direct placement revenue.

 

In today’s tight job market we are finding a steady demand for strong sales professionals as all clients look to increase sales and market share.  Skill shortages of mid-level accountants remain and I believe will increase as companies look for ways to save and account for every penny of expenses/revenue.  In the technology arena shortages remain for good system integrators & analysts, DBA’s, business intelligence and various programmers.  We are experiencing a cutback in administrative support, human resources and lease administrators.  The Pharma world although slowing down remains a bed of activity and competition for good clinical personnel.

 

As I look to lead BLK we remain highly focused on bringing the best and brightest talent to our clients openings.  This assures them a good return on their investment.  Since we all know human capital is the bedrock of all great companies in both good and bad times.

 

Thank you to all for your support….as a old bat this is the 4th major economic crisis I have faced in the past 30 years….the only reflection or insight I have to offer is “the crisis I am currently involve in is always the worst”.  Including prime at 20+% (1980) Stock Market crash (1987) Resolution Trust and Saving & Loan Failures (1992) and the technology storm (2000-2002) and of course the horror of 911.  We will survive and the supermarkets will have food to buy.  Thank God for Potato Chips and Saturday Night Live.

Job Creation UGH!

Holy Cow…How depressing are today’s job creation & unemployment numbers as reported in the New York Times

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/06/business/economy/06econ.html?ex=1378353600&en=fe70397b0574831f&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

 

With the political conventions completed….the stock market tanking….layoff announcements rising. …car sales almost non-existent…..earnings evaporating……back to schools sales at lows……hurricanes brewing……but gas is down to $3.50 a gallon….I can’t believe I even consider 3.50 good news…

 

So what is happening here at Berman Larson Kane (www.jobsbl.com) …. Our orders for August closed off from 07 and our sales took a corresponding dip & these job creation numbers confirm the reason…..however since the summer is behind us and we returned to full blast on September 2nd our great clients have placed some new orders with us….interviews delayed by summer vacations have returned to normal and I am optimistic that September sales here at BLK will exceed normal ranges.  We have several recruiting assignments that will help several people return to full employment.

 

Why I remain optimistic while the rest of the world is seemingly falling around us?  I have to believe that we can do it…Although the bad news is beginning to creep into our BLK universe, the BLK staff and myself are determined to forge ahead against great odds…and if there is any team that can accomplish our mission it is the talented BLK staff.  Our recruiters, research staff, talent pool and other services are top notch and our loyal clients continue to give as much work as possible.

 

Within the employment market several skill shortages have materialized and these openings have created a need for our recruiting services…Skills that are in demand SAS Programmers, C++ developers, LIMS Administrators, Compensation Analysts, Legal Assistants, Data Warehousing programmers and developers, .net developers, junior accountants and all workers that have experience in bankruptcies (sign of the times, sorry).

 

But the bottom line our economy is in the tank and our path out will come not come from tax cuts, not from lowering the prime, not from forgiving loans, not from bailing out the investment banks, not from ending the war and definitely not from import protectionism….The turnaround will begin with our new president….we need to revamp our ways, focus on becoming a green nation, move towards oil independents, our new growth or new economy and new businesses will rise from the need to protect our most precious resource OUR ENVIRONMENT. I believe our prosperity will come from our intellectual capital that this great country has a natural abundance…..We need to focus on our future today.

Return to Normal?

The bad economic news continues.  Job creation down…inflation up…. brink of war in Russia/Georgia…icons like Lehman Brothers in financial troubled waters…. earnings down across almost all disciplines’ and the sadist news the closing of Bennigans drinking establishments’.  I always thought people drank more in harder times…So much for any conventional wisdom remaining true in these uncharted times.

 

As for the BLK world www.jobsbl.com we saw a decline in orders during the month of July but am happy to report that orders have returned to normal during the first three weeks of August.  I do believe that the job market is dismal with unemployment and layoff announcement increasing, however the rate of employment for college graduates between the ages of 25 – 50 remains at almost full employment.

 

Skill shortages still remain in several pockets with BLK finding and ever increasing need by our clients for compensation specials with the future prediction of inflation causing worries about fair wage rates.  Certain technology skills remain in demand with myself predicting a continuing increase in technology jobs returning to the states from poor off shore performance with limited cost savings being experienced.  Mid-level accountants with public experience remain in demand and health care remaining steady as our population continues to age.

 

So for the moment I again am thankful for our wonderful clients and talented BLK staff that continue to make headway into this continuous economic downturn.  Who every thought I would grateful for a $3.50 gallon of gas in New Jersey. 

 

I know we all have great times ahead or at least the illusion of a new president being elected in November.  I look forward to a return to reality and economic sensibility……

Any Good News? Jobs Down

Well the economy continues on its tailspin.  Rumors of General Motors shaky financial position with high losses and stock price hitting a 42 year low is very upsetting, since I grew up on the saying “As G.M. goes so goes the U.S.” or “What is good for G.M. is good for the U.S.”  I hope that as another icon of that era Bob Dylan said “the Times they are a Changing” and our economy can survive and hopefully thrive on other business then the auto business.

 

Well the job creation numbers released today continue to be dismal.  A decrease of 62,000 jobs makes me wonder which of the quotes above are correct.

 

Our tiny universe here at Berman Larson Kane (www.jobsbl.com) has seen new job order listings decrease by about 20% in both our temporary and direct hire divisions during the month of June.  However we are lucky enough to have this set off by increases in other consulting business lines so this funk that the rest of the country is in by passed us another month.

 

On the proactive side as of July 1, 2008 BLK has acquired the staffing firm Global Search (www.gsearch.com) that specializes in Pharmaceutical, Biotechnology, Clinical Research Organizations, Healthcare, Insurance and Research.  We are confident that these new additions and the synergies of BLK & G Search will allow us to better serve our current clients and add additional services to all.

 

On the flip side of $4 dollar gas and milk, an article at the website Bruce Steinberg http://www.brucesteinberg.net/Newsletter_web_page.htm sees a possible upside to high gas for staffing.  I hope that Mr. Steinberg is right and Bob Dylan & G.M are wrong.  Half Full or Half Empty I remain concern that the US is half empty at the moment.

 

For the present moment I am so grateful that our wonderful clients and BLK staff continue to beat the odds of this “slow SLOW growth recession”.

Gas UP Jobs Down BLK OK

Gas at 135 dollar per barrel….pump gas here in NJ @ 4 dollar per gallon…Ford announces layoffs…Avaya announces layoffs…BJ’s sales increase…and American Airlines announces a 15 dollar charge for checking one piece of luggage…and Hillary announces she will fight through August to lead us to ????

 

Well, we here at Berman Larson Kane (www.jobsbl.com) continue to assist our clients in finding the best talent.  Our unique staffing products and services continue to gain market share in a shrinking hiring market.  I remain thankful for being surrounded by a talented wonderful staff that our clients have confidence in giving us the opportunity to identify talent for their staffing needs.

 

During the month of April/May we have seen a steady increase in our clients utilizing our contracting and temp services.  With a double-digit growth rate….not sure why?…but I believe clients are interested in hiring slowly because of the uncertainties in the long-term economy.

 

Our retention programs are experiencing an increase of inquiries and scheduled webinars as our clients look to retain their outstanding talent in these uncertain times. 

 

As for growth segments….the only real or accelerated growth is taken place in the ‘new media’ and “e-marketing” companies…with the pharm, technical services and logistic segments holding steady.  We are also experience some growth in confidential searches as company look to increase weak segments without losing momentum.

 

As for my future predictions for employment ….I am counting on the graying of the work force to continue to generate jobs in these trying times….

 

And as always I thank our loyal clients for continuing to place faith in our services and I smile that we at Berman Larson Kane were selected again as a “Best Place to Work” winner for our second consecutive year.

Job Creation? Why is BLK doing OK?

 

We at Berman Larson Kane www.jobsbl.com continue to monitor the job growth numbers for our clients and continue to express concern across most employment sectors.

 

All employment reports no matter how you attempt to put a positive spin on them continue dismal at best.  We continue to experience negative job creation; rising unemployment and an increase in discourage worker or bluntly those who have just plain given up looking for work.

 

Today’s New York Times business section had an article entitled “Many more are Jobless than Unemployed” by Floyd Norris.  This article really points to the severity of the job numbers and goes on to explain that the number of white men in their prime working/productivity years are approaching 1 in 7 are not working.  This is one of the highest numbers in the past 60 years.  I don’t thing that the number of Mr. Mom’s is accounting for this high percentage of males not working.

 

 He goes on to look at the number of women “But even among women there has been some slippage. The proportion of women ages 25 to 54 without jobs was 27.4 percent in March, a figure that is higher than it was during all but one month of  the 2001 recession.”                                                                                                                                                                                                        As General Electric earnings decrease, financial markets gyrate, consumer purchases decrease and gasoline pump prices increase. What is the future of the job market?  I am not overly optimistic. However, again from our little microcosm here at Berman Larson Kane we thank our clients with continuing faith in our services.  Utilization of our contract and temp services continues to give our clients a viable alternative to long-term commitments.  These contract jobs give many job seekers additional options and always give them an improved chance of direct hire at the completion of the temporary assignment. Additionally our retention programs continue to assist clients with hanging on to their most productive employees’.  

So for the moment, I continue to thank our diligent BLK staff for giving our clients some of the best staffing options in the industry. And thought hard efficient efforts BLK was selected again as one of the “Best Places to Work in New Jersey”.  Now to get back to putting more job seekers to work! We are doing our best from here.

Productivity & Unemployment UP/Down?

We at Berman Larson Kane (www.jobsbl.com) continue to experience a steady stream of new job orders from our clients contrary to everything we read in the media.  I mean just today General Motors announce a major layoff of all their hourly workers with the number being around 40,000 if my memory from this morning paper is correct.

 

So why are we seeing steady demand here at BLK?  Yesterdays, Wall Street Journel published an article about how the current productivity numbers are effecting the unemployment numbers.  And how the independent contractors are the first to feel this current slow down and that companies have positioned themselves with an efficient mix of employees, contractors and temps to adjust ready to the first signs of a turndown. Please read below:

 

“UP AND DOWN WALL STREET DAILY  |    

But there might be a different explanation. And clues are buried in, of all places, the surprisingly strong productivity data for the fourth quarter.Despite a sharp slowing in output in the last three months of the year, productivity still grew by a fairly healthy 1.8% during the period, more than three times as fast as economists generally had forecast. Usually, when the economy decelerates, productivity — which is defined as output per hours worked — declines because the numerator falls faster than the denominator of that fraction. Businesses don’t immediately furlough workers as soon as production slows; it’s not that they’re soft-hearted, but it takes time to see if the falloff is temporary or not.In the second half of 2007, there was an unusually sharp decline in the hours worked by self-employed workers, so the denominator fell, resulting in the fraction rising.According to the productivity numbers, total hours worked fell by 1.5% in the fourth quarter. Looking at the Labor Department’s payroll data, however, hours worked rose 1% during that period.Why the discrepancy? The payrolls data count workers on companies’ payrolls. The productivity data, by contrast, count all workers, including the self-employed. If the latter rose while the former fell, it’s reasonable to infer that the self-employed were working less.That’s important because the self-employed have become an increasingly large portion of the U.S. economy, and not just because of the E-bay entrepreneurs that Vice President Dick Cheney is fond of citing.During the housing bubble, the army of mortgage brokers and realtors swelled. The barriers to entry into those fields are minimal. As the former head of mortgage operations of a major New York bank once told me, a mortgage broker is a used-car salesman with a better suit. (Apologies to used-car salesmen.)In any case, thousands of people began to earn a living by getting a slice of the housing boom. But even when they went to work for a mortgage or real-estate firm, they remained independent contractors, not employees. That meant that they weren’t on firms’ payrolls (and not counted in the establishment survey of the monthly employment report)”                                                                                                                                                                                        So the bottom line is that the unemployment numbers have not been affected, however, as these announced RIF’s begin to hit the unemployment offices over the next several months I do believe we will see a steady increase in unemployment and a decrease in orders here at BLK. As for the moment I thank our terrific clients for having the confidence in our organization to allow us to continue to service their staffing requirements.

End of 2007 Beginning of 2008 Job Growth

Everywhere I look the economic news is bleak…..the banks are struggling, investment houses are losing money for the first time, retail sales are down and both commercial & residential real estate are in a tail spin.  So where will new jobs be created? (www.jobsbl.com)

 

Well the odds of new jobs being created in constructions is probably not a good bet along with mortgage companies, banks, brokerage houses and pharmaceuticals.

 

I do predict that new jobs will be created in support areas of manufacturing as they become more competitive internationally with the falling dollar.  Hospitality, especially in the major metro regions, will also benefit from the overseas tourists as they to quote one of our international clients “ buy new cloths for the price of buttons in their home countries”.  Software development and technical support companies will also add to staff as new niches for technologies are created.  And of course the hospital/healthcare/patient deliver jobs will continue to increase as our population pyramid continues to increase in the upper age blocks.  Also, the legal profession will continue to add staff as we discover new ways of suing each to recovering some of the financial loses that the sub-prime will continue to create.

 

So our little world here at Berman Larson Kane (www.jobsbl.com) we continue to see new orders from our clients across a wide spectrum of midsize to small companies. A continuing shortage of good information technology and financial professionals will create a growing need for talent.  And competition to retain the best talent will increase our retention programs. 

 

The bottom line is I continue to thank our loyal clients for finding value in our staffing products and look forward to being given the opportunity to demo new potential clients on our solutions.  And even with all this bad economic news I continue to be optimistic for positive job creation numbers for 2008.

ADP Job Growth

We at Berman Larson Kane (https://www.jobsbl.com) strongly agree with today’s Wall Street Jounel job growth perdiction: 

 “Early Wednesday, the Labor Department said third-quarter nonfarm business productivity swelled at a 6.3% annualized rate, up from the previous estimate of a 4.9% increase. Last quarter’s gain was the biggest in four years and nearly triple the 2.2% rate in the second quarter. The third-quarter productivity revision was slightly above Wall Street expectations of a 6.2% rise, and reflects last quarter’s mix of strong economic growth data with slower gains in payrolls.

“An employment indicator published Wednesday by payrolls giant Automatic Data Processingand consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers reported an increase of 189,000 in U.S. private-sector jobs in November. That compares with an expected 60,000 increase forecast by economists in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

“The ADP report comes ahead of key government data on the labor market due Friday. Economists are forecasting nonfarm payroll growth of 77,500 in November, compared with an increase of 166,000 in October.”

Our little microcosm her at BLK is in total agreement with the ADP survey and continue to see a influx of orders for what should be a slow month December…”let the hiring continue”