Well this past month for the first time we are experiencing some light in the employment numbers both as a nation and on the small Berman Larson Kane (www.jobsbl.com) employment scale.

Job creation numbers although still a negative (350,000) have decreased from the prior years average of over (600,000) per month.

Temporary job numbers decrease by a slim (6500) almost returning to even.  My experience with prior recessions this temporary category is the first to return too normal and has lead the job creation numbers of prior recoveries.  I am guardedly optimistic!

We at Berman Larson Kane are trending towards normal temporary employment billing and have recently seen a small increase in new hire orders by our clients.  Although direct hire numbers still lag considerably behind 2008 totals and are at least 35% behind 2007 statistics.

So the light at the end of the employment tunnel darkness is within sight.  My prediction is we will get to the end of month over month job loses by September/October 2009. I hope I am right.  If this is correct, we will begin to have a net job creation increase by late Q4 09 and witness some significant job growth beginning in 2010.  This job growth will be two fold, new jobs and replacement positions because corporations are currently over cutting employment to control expenses.

At Berman Larson Kane we experienced a slow down of direct hire order in April & May and are seeing a return to more normal levels in June.  My predictions for Q3 is still unclear, but I hoping for the best and feel relatively confident that temp work will increase until confidence is return to our clients sales projections.

As for the high unemployment numbers they may still continue to rise as job functions and productivity is realigned with the new economy and stimulus spending.

We at Berman Larson Kane continue to be thankful to our loyal clients, dedicated staff and staffing product mix.  We will continue of offer free job-seeker webinars (https://www.jobsbl.com/jobs/coaching/webinars.php) twice a month to assist those in need. We anticipate a client need for retention services for key staff, transition assistance for those that need retooling and are excited about the prospects of introducing a corporate wellness program in September.

Thank you again to all for your support during these turbulent times and we look forward to assisting all as the economy returns to a modest growth pattern.

Saturday April 25, 2009 

Today, we at Berman Larson Kane lost the founder of our Human Resource Division, Rose Kane.  Rose and several members of her family were the victims of a fatal car crash on the NJ Turnpike.  She will be greatly missed. 

Rose was a trailblazer in the HR field. After a 16-year tenure at Tenneco, a Fortune 500 company, she founded HR Pros and Kane Associates in 1984.  Her 30 plus years in the staffing industry were captured in a feature article in Fortune Magazine in 1997.  

When Rose was ready for retirement from the staffing industry in 1999,  we at Berman & Larson excitedly purchased her firm.  During the transition her stellar reputation shined so brightly we proudly added her name and legacy to our firm’s door.  She continued guiding us at Berman Larson Kane as a consultant through a successful transition.  All will miss her abilities, knowledge, temperament and good natured sense of humor. 

More recently, Rose channeled her time, energy, and considerable talents to developing several programs for her church including feeding the homeless.   She was devoted to her native Ireland and made several trips across the Atlantic. 

We at Berman Larson Kane will always remember her dancing the Irish Jig with   bagpipers at her retirement dinner, and we wish her peace and joy in the after life.  Stay well Rose; you are the best.

If I can read between the lines with a announced 8.1% unemployment rate combined with discourage workers and those working part time but looking for full time and the reduce weekly hours of those with jobs our true unemployment rate is around or above 20%! Ouch OUCH OUCH! 

Bruce Steinberg who writes a about unemployment www.brucesteinberg.net

The “Beige Book”, so named because of the color of the cover, reports on business activity in each of the 12 district banks. Perhaps the Fed should adopt the scale used by the Department of Homeland Security, which rates the terrorist threat level by green (low), blue (guarded), yellow (elevated), orange (high), and red (severe), for the report cover color. Below is an excerpt that details developments in sectors that many of our readers have business interests in:Demand continued to fall for professional services such as business consulting and accounting services, legal services, and other professional services in various Districts. However, Dallas noted a modest increase, albeit less-than-expected, in demand for legal services due to increased bankruptcy proceedings. Providers of information technology (IT) services in the Boston District saw a drop in activity on average, although some firms have sustained strong revenue growth; activity among providers of IT services was reported as stable to up in Kansas City, and Minneapolis reported that some IT services firms have seen solid demand from companies that are intent on using the technology to reduce costs. Demand for staffing services weakened considerably. Boston reported that outcomes for providers of temporary staffing services were “dismal,” with revenue declines in the range of 20 to 50 percent compared with twelve months earlier. Chicago and Dallas also reported sizable declines in activity by staffing firms, and New York noted that activity by a major employment agency has “virtually ground to a halt.”Mr. Steinberg is correct and so is the “Beige Book” about the declines in the staffing industry.  My work at NAPS www.recruitinglife.com supports the Fed’s summary.  And our members are experience several business challenges.

We here at Berman Larson Kane www.jobsbl.com continue to see the attendance of our weekly community service project webinars for the unemployed swell. We are lucky enough to have some great clients that keep us busy with projects in their pockets of growth.  Our contracting business continues to holds its own and our corporate transition coaching (BLK version of outplacement) continues to prosper.So once again I am thankful for our wonderful experience staff, great clients and our strong work ethic in these challenging times.  I always take the message from our new president “YES WE CAN” add wonderful value to the employment picture in our small way.

A net lose of 1.9 million jobs since September 08.  If we factor in the first two weeks of 09 I am sure we are well over a net lose of over 2 million jobs in a little over 4 months…OUCH….unemployment at 7.2% … and that does not count those working part time who want full time jobs, those under employed and those who have just pain given up looking for work…..I feel save in estimating the current true unemployment rate to be in double digits.  OUCH OUCH……. And this does not factor in several employers that had mandatory furloughs…..employers that close doors without pay for the holiday’s…..OUCH  OUCH OUCH

President-elect Obama I hope congress passes your stimulus package quickly and make job creation the primary focus….Are you sure your target of 3 million new jobs is large enough.  Borrow Borrow Borrow job creation must be number one priority of your administration.

Although we at Berman Larson Kane (www.jobsbl.com) are doing our best to help jobseekers locate new employment.  We remind or readers that we have over 100 job advice article on our webpage in the historical section of our newsletters and have live and on demand FREE job seeker webinars on our website to assist all job seekers. (https://jobsbl.com/jobs/coaching/webinars.php) . Put on your speakers to attend past webinars on demand or register for the next live session on January 15^th at 12 noon EST.

As for my predictions I am guardedly optimistic that this job recovery will be quicker that all believe.  I think the acceleration of the jobs recovery will be a reaction to the over cutting of staff that has taken place over the past 4 months.  Companies will need to add to staff with the slightest increase in capacity.  For all those that are unemployed/underemployed or discouraged employees I hope and pray that I am right this time.  Stay well and happy job hunting.

A net loss of 533,000 jobs in the month of November and this is without the auto industry closing.  And this is on top of a negative job growth number of 723,000 during the prior two months.  I am not a mathematician but that adds up to 1,256,000 jobs lost in this country in only a three-month period.  As you all know I have been in and around the employment business for over 30 years and I do not remember such a rapid slide in jobs.  And the government only just declared that we are officially in a recession.

Well the challenges here at BLK (www.jobsbl.com) have increased greatly with the greatest pressure being felt in our direct hire divisions.  Although the national trend is a decrease of around 14% for the temp business ours here at BLK is at a double-digit growth rate.  But the suspension of direct hires by many of our clients has lead to a few layoffs here as we unfortunately join the national averages.

As I lookout for a turning point our little microcosm here at BLK shows some of our client returning to a hiring mode in mid January.  Many of our other clients are waiting for sales reports and yearend closes to determine 2009 needs.  However my instincts point to some early life to the employment market in 09 once companies realize that they have over right sized staffs.

As a service to the recent masses of unemployed we at Berman Larson Kane will be sponsoring weekly lunch & learn webinars free of charge to the job seekers.   I am guardedly optimistic that the doom and gloom around us has been over projected.