We at Berman Larson Kane (www.jobsbl.com) continue to experience a steady stream of new job orders from our clients contrary to everything we read in the media.  I mean just today General Motors announce a major layoff of all their hourly workers with the number being around 40,000 if my memory from this morning paper is correct.

So why are we seeing steady demand here at BLK?  Yesterdays, Wall Street Journel published an article about how the current productivity numbers are effecting the unemployment numbers.  And how the independent contractors are the first to feel this current slow down and that companies have positioned themselves with an efficient mix of employees, contractors and temps to adjust ready to the first signs of a turndown. Please read below:

But there might be a different explanation. And clues are buried in, of all places, the surprisingly strong productivity data for the fourth quarter.Despite a sharp slowing in output in the last three months of the year, productivity still grew by a fairly healthy 1.8% during the period, more than three times as fast as economists generally had forecast. Usually, when the economy decelerates, productivity — which is defined as output per hours worked — declines because the numerator falls faster than the denominator of that fraction. Businesses don’t immediately furlough workers as soon as production slows; it’s not that they’re soft-hearted, but it takes time to see if the falloff is temporary or not.In the second half of 2007, there was an unusually sharp decline in the hours worked by self-employed workers, so the denominator fell, resulting in the fraction rising.According to the productivity numbers, total hours worked fell by 1.5% in the fourth quarter. Looking at the Labor Department’s payroll data, however, hours worked rose 1% during that period.Why the discrepancy? The payrolls data count workers on companies’ payrolls. The productivity data, by contrast, count all workers, including the self-employed. If the latter rose while the former fell, it’s reasonable to infer that the self-employed were working less.That’s important because the self-employed have become an increasingly large portion of the U.S. economy, and not just because of the E-bay entrepreneurs that Vice President Dick Cheney is fond of citing.During the housing bubble, the army of mortgage brokers and realtors swelled. The barriers to entry into those fields are minimal. As the former head of mortgage operations of a major New York bank once told me, a mortgage broker is a used-car salesman with a better suit. (Apologies to used-car salesmen.)In any case, thousands of people began to earn a living by getting a slice of the housing boom. But even when they went to work for a mortgage or real-estate firm, they remained independent contractors, not employees. That meant that they weren’t on firms’ payrolls (and not counted in the establishment survey of the monthly employment report)”                                                                                                                                                                                        So the bottom line is that the unemployment numbers have not been affected, however, as these announced RIF’s begin to hit the unemployment offices over the next several months I do believe we will see a steady increase in unemployment and a decrease in orders here at BLK. As for the moment I thank our terrific clients for having the confidence in our organization to allow us to continue to service their staffing requirements.

We at Berman Larson Kane (https://www.jobsbl.com) strongly agree with today’s Wall Street Jounel job growth perdiction: 

 “Early Wednesday, the Labor Department said third-quarter nonfarm business productivity swelled at a 6.3% annualized rate, up from the previous estimate of a 4.9% increase. Last quarter’s gain was the biggest in four years and nearly triple the 2.2% rate in the second quarter. The third-quarter productivity revision was slightly above Wall Street expectations of a 6.2% rise, and reflects last quarter’s mix of strong economic growth data with slower gains in payrolls.

“An employment indicator published Wednesday by payrolls giant Automatic Data Processingand consultancy Macroeconomic Advisers reported an increase of 189,000 in U.S. private-sector jobs in November. That compares with an expected 60,000 increase forecast by economists in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

“The ADP report comes ahead of key government data on the labor market due Friday. Economists are forecasting nonfarm payroll growth of 77,500 in November, compared with an increase of 166,000 in October.”

Our little microcosm her at BLK is in total agreement with the ADP survey and continue to see a influx of orders for what should be a slow month December…”let the hiring continue”

November was a very busy month here at Berman Larson Kane (https://www.jobsbl.com).  We started a new training class for recruiters, attended several HR/Staffing conventions, several staff sat for certification credentials and we launched a new employee retention practice.  November has been a whirlwind month for the betterment of our job-seekers and hiring authorities alike.

The temperature of national staffing industry was very optimistic at the NAPS (http://www.recruitinglife.com) annual convention held in San Antonio, Texas.  Attendance was high, education classes were full, social events were upbeat and the mood of the recruiters was off the charts with optimism.  So if this was the sole barometer 2008 looks like hiring will continue across many industries.  However, my person skepticisms do not accept this body as a good prediction of the future but is a great predictor of the immediate pass.  So my take from 5 days in Texas?  2007 was a good year for many staffing firms and the group is optimistic for 2008, believe me this is no guarantee, this more of a reactive group than a proactive hiring authority.

As for the HR conventions attended.  This group of professionals appears to be moving towards a level hiring pace for 2008.  With the primary concern of attracting and retaining the best talent.  Also the HR side of the bench is optimistic that they are increasing their corporations’ awareness of their value and in HR wording…”HR is getting invited to the Strategic Dinner Table with a higher Frequency”.  Again if convention attendance is an indicator the job creation numbers should continue to grow through 2008.

One of my observations from both the HR & Staffing conventions is that a higher percentage of participants are completing certification programs. Demonstrating a higher level of professionalism and the importance of performance within these industries.  On the Staffing side NAPS (http://www.recruitinglife.com) introduced a Firm Certification credential that will assure hiring companies of a quality service.  I believe this is a trend that will be the future of the staffing industry.

So my bottom line prediction is that December will see surprisingly good job creation numbers.  Which makes no sense considering the concern of retailers predicting a weak holiday season, layoffs in the financial sectors continuing to increase as a result of the sub-prime crisis and of course the price of gas in the $100/barrel range.  Go Figure?  Then again I could be wrong!

Right Again? Without Confidence!

Well we at Berman Larson Kane www.jobsbl.com correctly (or luckily) predicted back in August that job creation numbers would return to a normal range in September. And as we look forward to the month of October, based on the number of new orders we are seeing are predicting even a bigger increase this month. Only time will tell luck or skill or neither. I hope we are right again! Jobs are always a good thing for everyone.

“As for my prediction of what is really going on? For some unexplained instinct I believe that we will see an increase over the dismal August number with September returning at least for a brief period to an increase job creation cycle” BLK blog 09/07/07.

“Payroll growth came in ahead of estimates, rising by 110,000 in September, The consensus was for a gain of 98,000 jobs in September, following a weak August report that was revised, well, to a strong report — the previous figure, a 4,000-job loss, turned into an 89,000 gain. However, much of the upward revisions for the July-August months were due to a big increase in government jobs, which added 113,000 to the rolls for those two months.” Wall Street Journal 10/05/07

Consensus of many financial institutions that the sub-prime crisis is already behind us appears to myself a little presumptuous. Maybe the holders of these mortgage back securities have cleverly re-structured to avoid their financial catastrophe, (that is why investment bankers make the big bucks) but the impact has still not fully trickled down to “Main Street”. And the impact on consumer goods, retail, real estate, construction jobs and future development has a ways to go probably years.

So for the moment we at Berman Larson Kane www.jobsbl.com hold our breath. Appreciate the hiring business that our clients continue to bring to our firm. And look forward to continuing to bring value to the hiring process. So as usual we have very little idea of what is really going on?

Stock Market Gyrations/Sub-Prime & Job Creation

Well it’s been a rocky 10 days for investors. Real estate, banks, hedge funds, mortgage companies & world wide stock markets have been experiencing wide range flux. So as the fed worries and holds emergency meetings, homeowners worry about raising mortgage payments and investors watch their retirement portfolios decrease. What should the job seeker be concerned about? www.jobsbl.com

Having been in the staffing business for over 25 years and being a veteran of several severe market adjustments; I can’t remember a market incident that did not have some effect on the job market. The formula is relatively simple. If consumers have fewer funds to spend, companies have fewer products being bought and hiring needs decrease proportionally.

lower stock prices = less net worth = less spending = lower sales = less staffing.

As you can see I am no economist or macro mathematician but the simple correlations don’t require you be a rocket scientist to get the point.

So what should a job seeker do? Well for one make sure that your skill set adds value to your current employer. If at all possible build you own correlation of how your job assists or increase your employers sales. If you are in a cost center job keep a watchful eye on your employers quarterly sales totals and forecasts. And if negativity continues consider changing jobs to a more stable employer.

If you are currently unemployed consider all job offers. This might be the time to lock in a job even if it’s not the ideal situation or dream job. If history plays out, we might be experience a tightening of job creation in some skill sets and a steady rise in unemployment.

Then again as always I could and hopefully am wrong again?