Sorry for Being Right

Well this is one incident that I wish I was wrong.

We at Berman Larson Kane have been suspicious of the job creation numbers released over the past several months as being overly optimistic. Today’s report of a net loss of jobs in August of minus 4,000 jobs and the revision quoted in today’s WSJ seem more in line with our analysis.

Previous reports were revised sharply lower. July job growth was revised down to 68,000 from 92,000. June gains were revised to 69,000 from 126,000. The 44,000 monthly average job gain for the past three months is down sharply from the 147,000 average between January and May.” WSJ 9/07/07

As for our prediction last month of the effects of the sub-prime impact on job creation the good-producing sector was decimated with a loss of 64,000 jobs in August. And I am afraid that this is just the tip of the iceberg. The only ray of light here was in the computer sector with consulting, design, management and peripheral equipment all adding new jobs in August.

As for our micro world here at BLK we are again going against the grain. We experienced a steady flow of orders from our clients and new assignments are ahead of 2006 for the third quarter. So again I am lost to figure out what is going on?

Two possible situations might explain these gains. Our clients are pushing for new hires before budgets evaporate or we at BLK are working a few of demand niches that continue through good and bad times. But once again we will only know if we are right when we can look once again in the rearview mirror in 6-7 months. As for now I am thankful for the moment of having wonderful clients who are keeping us busy filling their jobs.

As for my prediction of what is really going on? For some unexplained instinct I believe that we will see an increase over the dismal August number with September returning at least for a brief period to an increase job creation cycle.

This time I really hope I am right….but only time will tell.