Well the DOL has revised their November job creation numbers up. What a surprise. I knew that they were undercounting in November and I will predict that the December numbers will also be revised up in the not too distance future.

As for January we here at Berman Larson Kane (https://www.jobsbl.com) are experiencing a steady flow of new orders but to-date are not experiencing a percentage increase over January 2005. This is not a disappointment because if the economy continues to produce new jobs at the same rate as 2005 all will be well in Mudsville and the unemployment rate will decrease rapidly as the supply of available talent is consumed by year over year job growth.

As for now, 2006 has a long way to go before we can all cheer. As for the state of Maryland and Walmart today’s news is another puzzle? Can’t we have health care, jobs and at least some sort of retirement program in the future? Life must of been simpler in a previous life time.

The New York City Transit Strike will put a damper on job hunting for all through out the day and night. As an outsider looking in; these labor negotiations puzzle me as I watch both sides put their opinion and logic forward. (https://www.jobsbl.com/)

#1 Don’t the Transit Strikers Realize that most of them have limited skills in the private employment market? One of my favorite indicators of employment security is not which company or union a person works for, but how transferable a worker’s skills are in the overall market. Although the Transit Workers perform valuable tasks for us commuters, they help keep the NYC economy flowing and they deserve a raise. They should really evaluate their skills and benefits with other private sector non-union workers. I know they will see how coveted and fairly paid they are compared to other laborers.

#2 Reduced Benefits for New Workers are Fair Negotiations In my opinion with the Transit Management offering to maintain benefit levels for current worker is a very fair proposal. Current workers signed on with the knowledge of great benefits as part of their decision process. As for new and future workers benefits. They can determine if it is a job they want based on the package being offered? And have the freedom to seek other employment and competitive wages and benefits.

#3 Taylor Law Fairness: As these unions go on strike the implications thought the region are very severe. For instance we at Berman Larson Kane have several contractors that work for our NY clients. These temporary workers will unfairly suffer during this holiday season because they are only compensated for the days they work. And even if they are able to arrive at work the strong possibility exists that limited to no work will be available if their supervisor is stranded do to the strike. So I am very much behind the two-day fines for each day on strike since this strike effects us all in the tri-state area and beyond.

#4 Percentage Raises Offered are Fair With our current high rate of unemployment and talent pool availablity to fill these jobs. The transit worker should accept the 9% offered by management and count their blessing since this will keep pace with the rate of inflation.

#5 Don’t Wipe Out the Good You’ve Done As a 30 plus year user of the subway system I have witnessed tremendous improvement in service over the years. Transit management and workers have done a wonderful job improving subway crime, sanitation & efficiencies. Don’t destroy the good will of the people by letting the greed, ego and power struggle of the unions get in the way of a fair settlement.

Transit workers for the moment look around at the unemployment lines and realize how many New Yorker’s would love to trade places with you. But the bottom line is NYC will survive this strike. We at Berman Larson Kane opened our business on April 1, 1980. What a April Fools joke was played on us “Day One of an 11 Day Transit Strike” the prime rate was around 20% and we all survived. To survival of all New Yorkers….”If we can make it here we can make it anywhere”.

Unemployment took a big jump in this last report. New Jersey job creation numbers were very weak. We here at BLK (https://www.jobsbl.com) are experiencing our best December in the last five years and perhaps the best in a decade.

So the paradox continues either our staffing programs are so good that we are increasing our job placement numbers in a declining market or the NJ DOL continues to miscalculate the Unemployment rate.

My ego and feeling are also in conflict on which is right. My ego wishes that the DOL numbers are correct and our BLK superior services are increasing market share in a declining market demonstrating again what a competent team of staffing professionals we employ. But the human/feeling side of me roots for the NJ DOL to be wrong so those that want to work can find work and that their sample remains statistically incorrect.

As we approach yearend with the excitement of the holidays and new year on the horizon, I continue to wish for full employment. So all who wish to work can and for a fair livable wage. May the employment Gods be with you all…..and I will always remember that the difference between recession and depression. In a recession your neighbor is unemployed in a depression you are unemployed. May we all experience nothing more severe than a short recession in 2006.

Today’s Headlines in the business sections of both the Star Ledger and the Record talk about weakness in the labor picture for New Jersey.
It is November and Thanksgiving is around the corner will the jobs materialize? We at Berman Larson Kane (https://www.jobsbl.com/) continue to see a steady stream of new job listing and bookings for introduction to our services from existing and potential clients. This small sample from our office points to a much more optimistic picture than the NJ DOL numbers.
So either, our small sample is correct (I hope so) and the state’s employment number is incorrect. Which strikes my logical side since the chances of unemployment decreasing without new jobs being created seems improbable.

Why would fewer people be applying for unemployment if fewer jobs were available? This does not make sense. The more logical relationship is as the economy creates more jobs unemployment goes down. So what these DOL reports mean to me is something in not right. And I will continue to believe in our small BLK sample.

A quote from today’s Star Ledger “Rae Rosen, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the latest data continue an up-and-down pattern that “suggests New Jersey’s job growth could be slowing.” Joseph Seneca, an economics professor at Rutgers University and one of the state’s leading forecasters, said the jobs numbers “raise significant concerns” about the strength of the state’s economy, which since 2000 has failed to duplicate the robust growth of the late 1990s.” I feel that these weak numbers reflect more of our states dependency on the Pharmaceuticals and this industry was in its sunrise five years ago and now has matured in terms of creating new employment.

The only segments that had a net increase in net employment were the professional and business services adding 400 jobs (this number points to a flat result) and leisure and hospitality adding 3,700.

However this mix is not positive for the state economy. From 1992 to 2000, New Jersey added 186,200 jobs in professional and business services paying $58,000 on average. But during the last five years, the state lost 14,000 jobs in this sector while adding 40,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality paying $20,000 on average, according to the labor department.

So the bottom lines, if you are unemployed do not be discouraged by these government reports. We at Berman Larson Kane are confident that the sun is shining during these cold chilly days of fall/winter.

Two days of SHRM conference (http://www.gscshrm.org/Conference/index.htm)
And one day of NJSA (http://www.njsa.com) is how I spent this last week. The cool part of these three days is that attendance at these meetings is very much focused on the future. And although the SHRM members are very concerned with skill shortages and the aging of the work force the NJSA group sees this as a wonderful opportunity to increase business.
I had the honor of presenting a breakout session to the SHRM (http://www.shrm.org)
Group. My topic was the “Advantages of Partnership compare to Vendor Relationships with your Staffing Firm) the good news is that the few that attended this 7 AM session gave co-presenter, Bonnie O’Brien and myself very positive feedback. The bad news that I wish attendance was greater in numbers. But in all my years of doing presentations at conferences I have never had the honor of a 7AM start time. This is one ambitious group of learners.
The sessions that I attended as a participant gave me great insight into the pluses and minus of the job boards. Special thanks to Tony Lee from the Wall Street Journal for another thought provoking look at the online job communities.
I also had the honor of facilitating the all day NJSA’s (http://www.njsa.com) annual planning conference. This organization has accomplished so much this past year and as a member I can’t praise the leadership enough for all the work they have done. However, the one theme that became evident to me was that this association needs a larger presents in the job-seeker and hiring authorities communities. Although well known within the staffing community they have a tremendous challenge to get their brand outside of the staffing community. I know their current leadership and talented board members both old and new will make headway into these challenges.
As for the job market, we at Berman Larson Kane (https://www.jobsbl.com) continue to see a steady stream of new search assignments. And we remain confident that this demand will help all job-seekers have a wonderful holiday season.

Today’s release of job numbers for October confirmed that the economy has put the breaks on creating jobs. The 53,000 jobs created during October where even weaker once you factor in the construction jobs created by hurricanes and the ending of the machinist strike. These numbers should be cause for concern for all job seekers since they are so far below the average for the year of 185,000/month.

In contrast our month at Berman Larson Kane (http:///wwwjobsbl.com) was average. However most of the job placement took place at small businesses for both direct and temp hiring. This observation from our small BLK sample was confirmed by a story in the Wall Street Journal today that quoted “A survey of more than 1,000 small businesses found the number of employees hired per firm in October was the strongest in 30 years, said William Dunkelberg, chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Business. He said, “Hiring is very strong, sales are strong, profits were up big. It’s hard to find any problems out there.”” So as you can see our experience probably does not reflect the entire economy just that our BLK business was steady because of our client mix.

The one ray of sunshine on this fall day is that our leading indicators here at BLK are pointing up for the remainder of the year. We have signed during the past two weeks above average new hiring contracts, have received orders for additional contractors/temps and requests for product demos remain strong. All of these factors keep my outlook on employment bullish for the immediate future. And this should make for a grateful Thanksgiving.

So if you are a job seeker don’t pass over the small businesses as a source of potential employment. This is the center of hiring activity for now.

We all know the expression “April Shower bring May Flowers”. As I live with day after day of gray rainy skies I pop the question “What do October Showers Bring? This warm muggy weather sure feels more like April then October. So what will they do to irrigate the job-market?

Last weeks/month job creation numbers were extremely weak to say the least. The analysts attribute the down turn to Hurricanes and all agree that this is a temporary downturn in the job creation cycle.

I read a story that the fast food chains in the New Orleans area are offering generous sign-on bonuses (6K) and doubling wages so they can attract hamburger flippers to feed the hungry. I hope that someday the programmers market returns to sign-on bonuses, counter-offers and panic hiring. But for now we should all be happy that IT wage deflation has seized and that the demand for IT talent has return to a somewhat competitive level. The IT perfect storm of the last few years, Y2K, Dotcom Bust, 911 and Off-Shoring leveled the demand very quickly with hurricane force. I am pleased to report that this destruction has been repaired with the prospect over the long term looking very positive and the war for IT talent has begun.

As for our micro market sample here at BLK (https://www.jobsbl.com) we have experienced a slow down with mixed signals from our leading indicators. New job assignments are off by about 30% (not a good sign), but the number of new and repeat clients contacting us for staffing product demos are up 25% (pointing to a positive demand increase in the near future)

So I guess the bottom line is that I have no idea what the immediate future holds, but remain extremely positive long term. As for now on this rainy day the NY Yankees are cleaning out their lockers and I know George Steinbrenner will be creating a few jobs in the Bronx over the next 6 months. We look forward to expressing our opinions on who should fill those openings. One thing is sure April showers will bring new talent to the Bronx baseball diamond.

About 30 years ago I discovered the staffing industry or as it was called then “the placement business”. Looking back it was one of the best days of my life, with the exception of my wedding day (my wife always reads these entries).

For the past 30 years I have enjoyed the fruits of this business, the challenges, the “thanks” from clients, job seekers and wonderful employees. Rarely will a day pass that I don’t thank god for guiding me into this wonderful profession.

For the past 20 years I have attended every NAPS conference through good and bad times. Each year I’ve walked away with different ideas, most I forget (senior moment), but always returned with immediate and future techniques that improved my business.

Our company has survived numerous recessions over the past quarter century and grew during this most recent staffing depression. How did we survive and thrive? I must give credit to NAPS Conferences. During these 3-day annual events I have met many great colleagues, been in the presents of master teachers, visited informative vendors, received sensible legal advice and mixed in a lot of fun. These exchanges as student, peer and teacher have given our organization invaluable lessons on closing, marketing, management, trend analysis and operation strategies.

So in less than 30 days the NAPS Conference begins. The price is reasonable $399, the best education value in the industry. However the true cost of attending these 3 days is your time away from your business. But as someone who is returning for the 21st time (slow learner) I know that the real “loss” would be to miss this opportunity to increase my understanding and guaranteed return in future business. So please consider joining this staffing event.

If you are one of the 600 already registered, you know what I am talking about. If you are one of the many sole proprietors, business owners, managers or recruiters who are not yet registered click here. With 30 Speakers, 3 Keynotes, Value-Add sessions (featuring Barb Bruno and Danny Cahill) exhibitors, legal session and 35 best practice tables I know you will walk away with tangible and intangibles that will help your business grow and prosper over the next 30 Years.

May the staffing gods be with you.

August is the full swing on NY/NJ vacation times. Record rentals are being reported in area resorts. Tourism has returned to normal in NYC. So who will find the time to interview job prospects, write the job specification and check the references? I don’t know but based on our continuing increase of job orders somebody is NOT on vacation.

Today, one BLK (https://www.jobsbl.com ) client whom will be adding 20 plus additions to staff during the next four months, place and order for 5 direct hires and one temporary consultant. Our HR department reports a record number of new orders for temporary corporate recruiters (always a good sign for job creation). Rates for recruiters are rapidly increasing back to prior 2001 levels. All are great signs for the job seeker and point to the concerns as competition for talent heats up with the August temperatures and I am projecting to continue through the rest of the third quarter and into the fourth.

Another NYC based client called for a proposal to staff three information technology positions to develop the automation of new business lines. A new tier client place and order for two additions to staff in the Washington D.C. region. Repeat business from returning BLK tier clients are increasing daily through the summer months at record levels. So much for planned vacations.

All of this summer activity leads me to believe that by Labor Day, we will celebrate with a lower unemployment rate and look for the hiring pace to increase even more in September. My one word of caution is the high price of gas could put a halt on this optimistic prediction.

One observation continues as an increasing percentage of these hiring demands are coming from employers with less that 500 employees. Small business has always been an engine for new positions, but from my observations during the most recent 7 months they are beginning to run on all cylinders, surpassing the fortunes in momentum and career opportunity.

Yesterday was the first day of summer. Telling signs of the season are warmth and relaxation. Cool drinks, barbecues, vacations, sandals and shore visits are the signatures of summers in the NY/NJ region. But as the pavement heats up will the job market pick up or will a chilling thunderstorm symbolize this summer job market?

Here at BLK (https://www.jobsbl.com) our leading indicators turned down sharply during the beginning of May and we experienced a slow down of new hires from mid-May until this week. It is just during the past 5 business days have we seen these leading indicators reverse and begin to rise in synch with the rising mercury.

So my predictions are for a strong summer of hiring with just enough rainy days to keep the flowers from weltering. The Bergen Record article recently published (6/14/05) a survey that reported 47% of Bergen County companies are planning to increase staff during the 3rd quarter with only 9% planning on downsizing. These figures are very positive compared to the New Jersey statewide results reporting only 23% planning on increasing hiring during this period. As for the United States 31% are planning on adding to staff during Q3.

Skills that we at BLK (https://jobsbl.com) see rising faster than the temperature are: Java Developers, Network Security, Cost Accountants, Tax Accountants, Recruiters, MY/SQL, PHP & C# developers, & Compensation Analyst.

So if you are a job seeker remain aggressive in your search. Even if its from your cell phone on the beach. And for the employers these numbers point to a heating up of the talent war for the best and the brightest. All in all it should make for a hot, stormy, sizzling season.